Not much known about New Orleans' future

Sunday, March 19, 2006

Almost 7 months after Hurricane Katrina - the worst disaster in modern US history - not much is known about the future of New Orleans.

Typically, one of the requirements for coming up with a usable prognostication, is to have something to compare with, but there is absolutely nothing that even comes close to comparing to the Hurricane Katrina aftermath.

More head-scratching was in order last week when the RAND Corporation, a national think-tank, checked in about what the future holds for New Orleans. RAND said that three years after Hurricane Katrina, in September 2008, the city will have a population of some 272,000. It is expected that the current repopulation rate will significantly slow down beginning in late 2006.

New Orleans housing can be divided into three categories: residences that sustained only wind damage, those that had wind damage and/or minor flooding and those all but wiped from the face of the planet by flooding.

The first two categories can be made inhabitable within a short period of time, while the third one will take much longer, if ever, and will be dependant on the speed of the economic recovery of New Orleans. RAND estimated that 55 percent of the population sustained severe housing damage.

Alot of speedbumps lay in the way of the repopulation of New Orleans such as the costs of rebuilding sharply driving up the costs of rental properties, as well as the ability of poor residents to find transportation back to the city.

Higher costs for flood insurance, labor, and rebuilding are likely to push down employment, RAND warned. Businesses that don't need a presence in New Orleans will leave, while higher costs will be passed on to consumers, not only in the form of rent, but in goods and services, RAND said.